The latest findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), published in The Lancet, forecast a significant increase in global life expectancy by 2050. According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), males are expected to see an increase of 4.9 years, while females will experience a rise of 4.2 years between 2022 and 2050.
The most notable increases are anticipated in countries currently exhibiting lower life expectancy, leading to a more equitable global distribution of longevity. This trend is primarily driven by public health interventions that have significantly reduced mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases, COVID-19, and various communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional diseases.
Despite this optimistic outlook, the study highlights a shift in the global disease burden towards non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes.
The prevalence of these conditions, alongside associated risk factors like obesity, high blood pressure, poor diet, and smoking, is expected to shape the future health landscape. Consequently, while more people may live longer, a greater number will spend additional years in poor health.
This is precisely why it’s so important for health coaches to update their knowledge so that they can be in the best position to assist clients who may have a range of health and wellness challenges.
By 2050, global life expectancy is projected to rise from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.1 years. Similarly, the global healthy life expectancy (HALE) – the average number of years a person can expect to live in good health – is expected to increase from 64.8 years to 67.4 years.
Dr. Chris Murray, Chair of Health Metrics Sciences at the University of Washington and Director of the IHME, emphasized the positive trend towards narrowing the disparity in life expectancy across different regions. “While health inequalities between the highest- and lowest-income regions will remain, the gaps are shrinking, with the biggest increases anticipated in sub-Saharan Africa,” he noted.
The study also underscores the importance of policy interventions aimed at mitigating behavioral and metabolic risk factors to accelerate reductions in the global disease burden.
The accompanying GBD 2021 risk factors study revealed a 50% increase in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to metabolic risk factors since 2000.
Dr. Stein Emil Vollset, lead author of the study, highlighted the potential impact of various public health interventions through alternative scenario modeling.
The “Improved Behavioral and Metabolic Risks” scenario showed a potential 13.3% reduction in disease burden by 2050 compared to the most likely scenario. Additional scenarios focused on safer environments and improved childhood nutrition.
For health coaches, these findings underscore the critical role of lifestyle and behavioral interventions in promoting longevity and quality of life. Emphasizing healthy behaviors, managing metabolic risk factors, and advocating for effective public health policies can contribute significantly to improving global health outcomes.
By staying informed about these trends and integrating evidence-based strategies into their practice, health coaches can play a pivotal role in shaping a healthier future.
